Race Using Probability and Money

To find the best bet in a horse race you have to compare the probability of a horse winning the race with the actual payoff from the winner. That can be said in one sentence, but to learn how to handicap and find the best wager is a difficult process. It takes 토토사이트 to estimate a horse’s chances of winning, but a few handicapping guidelines may help you to learn the method to handicap a horse race for profit a little faster.

First of all, the old saying, “the fastest horse doesn’t always win but that’s how you have to bet em’,” isn’t far from the truth. Speed is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of a runner winning a race. So start by quantifying speed. Some suppliers of past performances make the job easier by averaging the horse’s speed over the distance or in the last thirty days, etc. It doesn’t matter which method you use as long as you’re consistent in your approach and wind up knowing which horse is the fastest or most likely to run the fastest.

That will usually be the favorite or “chalk,” in the race. That’s the most likely winner and the one you’ll compare the others to. Let’s say the chalk is at 2-1. That means it will pay $6 for every $2 win wager. If the same race was run 10 times and that horse was likely to win 3 races out of 10, about 30%, you would collect $6 three times but you’d spend $20 to do it. You’d lose about $2 or 10% of your bankroll. That’s actually what happens to people who bet favorites.

Let’s say the second fastest horse is at 3-1 and will pay $8 for every $2 wagered on that one. The question is, how much better is the favorite or chalk compared to that one? If it will win about 2 races out of 10 then it is also a losing bet in the long run, but if it will win 2.5 times out of ten, or 25%, it’s actually a break even bet. 2.5 x $8 = $20, the same amount you’d spend to bet on that one to win in 10 races.

So the question of which horse is the best bet is answered by the difference between win probability and price. If you notice a big difference between the average speed of each of the runners but there is very little difference in the payoffs, you may have found a good bet and it will often be the second or third favorite on the odds board. That’s a very simplified look at a complicated subject but it should get you to start thinking in the right direction.

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